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ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S. ; Kočenda, Evžen
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial crisis. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on commodity prices during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, indicating the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools. The largest impact is documented on fuel and food commodities. Our results also suggest that the effect of ECB monetary policy on commodity prices transmits through the exchange rate channel, which influences European market demand.
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ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S. ; Kočenda, Evžen
We analyze the impact of the ECB monetary policies on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices using monthly data from January 2001 till August 2019. We employ a SVAR model and assess separately period of conventional monetary policy before global financial crisis (GFC) and unconventional monetary policy during post-crisis period. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on the aggregate and sectoral commodity prices during both conventional and unconvetional monetary policy periods. The effect is statistically significant for aggregate commodity prices during post-crisis period. In terms of sectoral impact, the effect is statistically significant for food prices in both periods and for fuel prices during post-crisis period; other commodities display positive but statistically insignificant responses. Further, we demonstrate that the impact of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices increased remarkably after the GFC. Our results also suggest that the effect of the ECB monetary policy on commodity prices does not transmit directly through market demand and supply expectations channel, but rather through the exchange rate channel that influences the European market demand directly.
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The Effect of Geopolitics on Commodity Prices
McGrouther, Robert ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Riegl, Martin (referee)
The thesis examines the effects of geopolitical events on global crude oil, wheat and aluminum prices. Geopolitical events have the potential to disrupt the production and supply of commodities to markets, affecting prices. Path analysis models that mirror crude oil, wheat and aluminum markets are constructed using theories specific to each commodity to measure how substantial the impacts of different variables are upon prices. Vector error correction models are then employed to test if individual geopolitical events have long-term effects on prices. An analysis of production and exports of commodities in regions and countries affected by geopolitical events is conducted to determine how severely production is disrupted. A basic examination of prices before, during and after geopolitical events is conducted to understand how quickly drivers of commodity prices can shift between geopolitical events and supply and demand fundamentals. It also serves to show how quickly prices revert to pre-event levels following a geopolitical event.
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